Texas Wheat Yield & Precision Agriculture Data 2026
Texas Wheat yield reached 31.0 bu/acre in 2026 — 17.1 bu/ac below the US average of 48.1 bu/ac. State-level estimates, sourced directly from USDA NASS.
Wheat yield trend
Texas vs the US average, 2020–2026 (7 years of USDA NASS data)
| Year | Texas (bu/ac) | US average (bu/ac) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 30 | 49.7 |
| 2021 | 37 | 44.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | 46.5 |
| 2023 | 37 | 48.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | 51.2 |
| 2025 | 37 | 53.3 |
| 2026 | 31 | 48.1 |
How Texas compares
Top Wheat-producing states, 2026 yield
| State | Yield (bu/ac) | vs US avg |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 87 | +80.9% |
| Michigan | 87 | +80.9% |
| Indiana | 85 | +76.7% |
| California | 83.4 | +73.4% |
| Ohio | 83 | +72.6% |
| Wisconsin | 83 | +72.6% |
| Kentucky | 82 | +70.5% |
| Alabama | 79 | +64.2% |
What this data means for Texas Wheat farmers
Texas wheat yields have remained persistently below the national average, and the 2026 final USDA estimate of 31 bushels per acre confirms that pattern is holding. That figure represents a six-bushel drop from the 37 bushels per acre recorded in 2025, pulling the state back to levels last seen in 2024 and 2022. Against the US average of 48.1 bushels per acre, Texas trails by 17.1 bushels, a gap that reflects the state's exposure to drought stress, variable soils, and the challenges of dryland production across the Rolling Plains and Panhandle. The yield history over the past seven seasons oscillates narrowly between 30 and 37 bushels per acre, suggesting structural constraints rather than a single bad year.
At a current price of $6.23 per bushel, closing even a portion of that 17.1-bushel yield gap through precision management translates directly into meaningful revenue. A grower who lifts yield by just five bushels per acre through variable-rate nitrogen application, soil-moisture monitoring, and timely fungicide decisions adds roughly $31 per acre to gross revenue, which can cover the annualized cost of most precision subscription tools and sensor networks with room to spare. Remote sensing platforms that flag stressed zones before visible symptoms appear allow agronomists to redirect inputs away from underperforming areas and concentrate them where the yield response is highest, reducing per-bushel input costs across the field. In a state where dryland wheat margins are already thin and yields swing by as much as seven bushels from one year to the next, that kind of data-driven targeting is not a luxury but a practical hedge against the volatility the yield record makes plain.
Precision ag platforms used by Texas Wheat farmers
Overview of major platforms — features and fit for different operation sizes. No sponsored content.
Precision ag ROI calculator
Estimate annual savings for your Texas Wheat farm based on acreage and current yield
Estimate the payback on variable-rate seeding, zone-based fertility, and overlap reduction for your farm.
Estimate only — based on industry-average implementation costs (variable-rate seeding $18/ac, zone-based fertility $22/ac, overlap reduction $9/ac; $12,000 fixed + $17/ac ongoing) and USDA yield benchmarks, not a quote.
Frequently asked questions — Texas Wheat
Why is Texas wheat yield at 31 bu/acre so far below the US average of 48.1 bu/acre in 2026?
Texas wheat production is heavily concentrated in the Southern High Plains and Rolling Plains regions, where persistent drought, extreme heat stress during grain fill, and shallow soils consistently limit yield potential compared to states like Kansas and Washington. Erratic precipitation patterns and early-season freeze events followed by rapid warming can further damage tiller development and reduce head counts per acre. These regional climate stressors structurally compress Texas yields relative to the national average.
What is the potential return on investment for precision agriculture technology on a Texas wheat operation given the current 31 bu/acre yield and $6.23/bushel price?
At $6.23 per bushel, each additional bushel per acre gained through variable-rate seeding, precision fertilizer application, or soil moisture monitoring translates to $6.23 in gross revenue per acre, meaning even a modest 3-4 bu/acre yield improvement generates roughly $18-25 per acre in additional income. For a 1,000-acre Texas wheat operation, that improvement would represent $18,000-$25,000 in added gross revenue, which typically covers the annual cost of many precision ag subscriptions and sensor systems. Closing even a fraction of the 17.1 bu/acre gap versus the US average represents a compelling financial case for technology adoption.
Which USDA programs are most relevant for Texas wheat farmers dealing with below-average yields in 2026?
Texas wheat producers should closely evaluate the Agriculture Risk Coverage-County Option (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs, as wheat prices and yields in 2026 may trigger benchmark-based payments depending on enrollment elections made during the Farm Bill signup period. The Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) and federally subsidized crop insurance products through Risk Management Agency (RMA), such as Yield Protection and Revenue Protection policies, are also critical safety nets for dryland wheat acres in high-risk Texas counties. Producers in disaster-designated counties may additionally qualify for Emergency Loans through USDA's Farm Service Agency.
What local growing conditions in Texas most directly limit winter wheat yields, and how can agronomists address them?
Insufficient and poorly timed rainfall during the September-November planting window frequently results in poor stand establishment across the Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, with many fields experiencing skipped rows or uneven emergence that permanently caps yield potential. Additionally, high evapotranspiration rates, sandy loam soils with low water-holding capacity, and the risk of spring dry winds during heading and grain fill compress test weights and final bushel counts. Agronomists can partially mitigate these conditions by recommending drought-tolerant varieties, adjusting seeding rates based on soil moisture at planting, and using precision irrigation scheduling on the portion of Texas wheat acres that have access to groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer.